Mapping the developmental trajectories of chronic offenders in Canada

Abstract

The current study analyzed convicted chronic offenders that were charged with at least two offences in the region of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, between 2006 and 2019 (N = 11,426) in order to investigate the relationship between specialization (i.e., committing the same crime type repeatedly) and versatility (i.e., committing a variety of crime types) which have commonly been viewed as mutually exclusive. It aimed to determine whether: (1) committing a certain crime in the past makes an individual more likely to commit that same crime in the future, (2) having an affinity for specific crimes makes an individual more likely to commit certain other crimes, and (3) offenders are likely to move throughout the clusters identified in objective 2 in a consistent fashion. In achieving objective 1, a logistic regression identified that in almost all crime types assessed, a prior conviction for a certain offence increased an individual’s chances of being convicted of that same offence in the future. This finding provides support for the overarching goal of policies and regulations that target chronic offenders (e.g., the National Sex Offender Registry). Both objectives 2 and 3 yielded less distinct results, suggesting that specialization and versatility are likely not mutually exclusive and that offenders are likely to repeat certain crimes in tandem with other crimes.