Energy-economic model for transition to renewables
Date
2013-05-01
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Abstract
Presented in this thesis is a macro-economic model based on a three-factor production
function, utilizing energy, capital, and labour as the three production factors. With a
primary focus on energy production we include two sources of energy, the rst derived
from a xed amount of natural resources and the other generated from renewable sources.
The production of energy from non-renewable sources is based on a Hubbert-type model
of extraction. The production of energy from renewables is dependent on investment,
innovation, and a natural limit to energy production. We also seek to include an aspect
of investment in technology through the inclusion of e ciency and innovation factors.
Two models of growth are examined for e ciency and innovation. The model, a set
of di erential algebraic equations, has been implemented in a C++ program which is
provided at the end of this thesis. We provide two solution methods, the rst based on
a classic Runge-Kutta fourth order solution combined with Newton's method, and the
second an implementation of the DASSL implicit DAE solver package. The model shows a
promising incremental improvement over the model proposed by Berg et al. [2], however
the sheer volume of parameters and the extensive sensitivity of the model to certain
parameters introduces new di culties in estimating values and hence the con fidence in
long term predictions made.
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Keywords
Energy production, Natural resources, Renewable resources, Hubbert-type model, Non-renewable resources, Runge-Kutta fourth order solution, DASSL, DAE solver package