Development of a model to investigate the sustainability of Ontario’s future electricity supply through a dual life cycle lens

Abstract

Since the turn of the century, greenhouse gas emissions and their climate related impacts have been studied with increased vigor. A tool that has gained popularity in supporting the reduction of emissions is life cycle assessment (LCA). This thesis proposes looking forward to using life cycle emissions and life cycle costs to determine which technologies can sustainably, both environmentally and economically, be used to meet Ontario’s future electricity demand. A model was developed to calculate the life cycle impacts based on the installed capacity of each generation technology and its respective life cycle factors. The model was validated against historical results and then used to generate several alternative scenarios. A case study was performed, showing how a researcher could use the model to explore shutting down nuclear in Ontario. This model can now be used by researchers to assess life cycle impacts of electricity generation in Ontario and other jurisdictions.